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Upstart
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Latest analysis
Updated Nov 3, 2026
Upstart Q3 2026: Record $218M contribution profit masks macro-driven balance sheet pressure forcing full-year total revenue guide down to ~$1.35B
Upstart delivered record contribution profit of $218 million in Q3 2026, up 48% year-over-year, and achieved positive secured contribution margin of 17% a full quarter ahead of target — both results driven by technology and marketing alpha. However, the Upstart Macro Index rose to 1.5 in Q3 and reached 1.53 in October, with the 2-year Treasury yield up over 115 basis points year-to-date, compressing balance sheet-derived income and forcing a full-year total revenue revision from $1.4 billion to approximately $1.35 billion and adjusted EBITDA from $294 million to approximately $260 million. The core strategic story — fee revenue and contribution profit now expected to exceed original guidance despite macro headwinds — validates the AI underwriting engine's alpha generation, while the bank charter launch in early 2027 is positioned to convert balance sheet equity into cash and expand TAM.
Tone: mixedRevenue
$1B
UPST 10-K · FY 2025
Employees
1,405
Revenue FY2024
$636.5M
EBITDA margin
24%
Profile
UPST 10-K Item 1 · Feb 10, 2026Upstart is an AI-powered lending marketplace that connects consumers seeking personal, auto, and home equity loans with banks, credit unions, and institutional investors. The company's proprietary machine learning models assess credit risk using more than 2,500 variables, enabling higher approval rates and lower APRs than traditional FICO-based underwriting. Revenue is generated primarily through platform, referral, and servicing fees paid by lending partners and institutional investors.
Read filing description ↓ Collapse description ↑
Upstart is the leading artificial intelligence ('AI') lending marketplace. We aim to radically reduce the cost and complexity of borrowing for all Americans by using our proprietary AI models to remake the entire lending process. Founded in 2012, Upstart's marketplace supports unsecured and secured credit products, such as personal loans, auto loans, and home equity lines of credit ('HELOCs'). Long-term, our vision is to become the always-on, everything-store for credit, where we can automatically approve borrowers at the right prices - instantly and effortlessly. Our platform applies AI to more accurately quantify the true risk of a loan, a capability we refer to as 'risk separation.' This differentiated approach to underwriting has generally led to higher approvals and lower interest rates relative to traditional lending practices, with more predictable returns to our capital partners including banks and credit unions (collectively our 'lending partners') and institutional investors. Beyond core underwriting, we apply our proprietary AI models to other areas of our business, such as income and identity verification, fraud detection, and identifying loan stacking behavior, among others. The result is an exceptional digital-first experience with significant levels of automation that helps consumers throughout the loan process with minimal effort. In 2025, 91% of loans on our platform were fully automated, with no human intervention by Upstart. Our dynamic marketplace allows us to serve borrowers across the credit spectrum. Loans issued through our marketplace are purchased by our network of institutional investors, retained or purchased by our lending partners, or in certain instances, held on our balance sheet.
Primary products
- Personal loans
- Auto loans
- Home equity lines of credit (HELOCs)
- Upstart Auto Finance
- Pass-through certificate programs
- Asset-backed securitization programs
End markets
Geographies
Named customers
In the year ended December 31, 2025, our top three lending partners collectively originated 83% of the loans facilitated through our marketplace and revenue from fees received from these lending partners accounted for 61% of our total revenue.
“We believe we compete favorably based on the following competitive factors: Constantly improving AI models; Compelling loan offers to consumers that improve regularly; Automated and user-friendly loan application process; Cloud-native, multi-tenant architecture; Combination of technology and customer acquisition for lending partners; Robust and diverse lending marketplace; and Brand recognition and trust.” Competitive position, as stated in the filing
Revenue commentary · FY 2025
Total revenue increased from $636.5 million in fiscal year 2024 to $1.04 billion in fiscal year 2025, driven by an 86% increase in transaction volume dollars and a 49% increase in revenue from fees, net.
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